Was this the week Israel and Hezbollah drew closer to war?

The day after the Hamas assault, Lebanon#39;s most powerful armed group Hezbollah fired guided rockets and shells into Israel. Israel carried out more air strikes on the Bekaa valley, deep into Lebanon, taking the death toll in Lebanon since the start of the conflict to more than 240. Could Israel, traumatised and vulnerable, with a prime minister fighting for political survival, decide the threat from across its northern border in Lebanon needs to be neutralised? At least 17 Israelis have been killed in attacks from Lebanon and Syria since October.

In retaliation, Hezbollah fired a barrage of 100 Katyusha rockets on northern Israel, its heaviest attack since the war began. The rockets this week prompted an angry post by Israel#39;s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. Israel knows that Hezbollah#39;s military capability is far greater than that of Hamas. Memories in Lebanon are still fresh of the disastrous 2006 war with Israel, which left more than 1,000 Lebanese dead.

71% of respondents favoured a large-scale military operation to drive Hezbollah back. She believes that Hezbollah#39;s use of rockets, which have a longer range than anti-tank missiles used previously by the group, is evidence of a shift in the group’s military tactics and capability. About 60,000 Israelis living in communities close to the border have fled the fighting since October. The area south of the Litani was supposed to be clear of military presence except for that of the Lebanese army and UN forces - which Hezbollah has violated.

That#39;s been part of discussions with Amos Hochstein, the US Special Envoy, who has been repeatedly dispatched to the region to avert an escalation. So far, both Netanyahu and Hezbollah appear to be holding back from the precipice. Netanyahu battered by perception that he left his country vulnerable to the worst attack in its history. Fears he may see expanding the fight in Lebanon as key to his political survival.

Professor Hilal Khashan, from the American University in Beirut, believes Israel#39;s relative restraint so far doesn’t tell the true story. A further, and potentially more serious, unknown would be the response from Iran. Iran relies on Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon, as a bulwark against Israel. Iran-backed groups have hit US military bases in Iraq and Syria.

Yemen#39;s Houthi rebels, aligned with Iran, have launched countless strikes on ships in the Red Sea. Hassan Nasrallah has said that he will not agree to a ceasefire with Israel before there is a truce in Gaza. He is reported to have told an Iranian military leader last month that he did not want Iran to get sucked into a war with Israel or the United States. Biden treads carefully through Middle East minefield.

Gaza desperately needs more aid but agencies can’t cope. Hamas support soars in West Bank - but full uprising can still be avoided. The status quo is smashed. The future is messy and dangerous for both Israel and Hamas.